With the NFL Draft still fresh in our minds but with a chance to further digest the results, I thought it was a good time to dig into Pro Football Reference and see just how well the key positions have performed as rookies in the fantasy era. The series starts with tight ends, but we'll also be covering the QBs, RBs and WRs.
LaPorta and Bowers change rookie TE narrative
For years, the rule of thumb was good to us. Ignore rookie tight ends. The position is too complicated. The players need development time. We'll revisit these guys in a few years, after they've been around the track a little bit.
And then Sam LaPorta landed in 2023 with a 86-889-10 line, finishing TE1. And then Brock Bowers detonated in 2024, another TE1 score en route to setting new rookie marks for catches and yards by a tight end. Rookies on a rampage.
What the heck's going on out here?
To be fair, both LaPorta (a second-round selection) and Bowers (the 13th overall pick in last year's draft) came into the league with glittering comps. LaPorta was linked to George Kittle, two hits from the Iowa tight end factory. Bowers was comped to Travis Kelce, another star headed to the Hall of Fame. You can't do much better than that.
Rookie tight ends are important to consider this season because two of them were taken in the first round. The Bears tabbed Colston Loveland out of Michigan with the 10th overall pick, and Tyler Warren of Penn State went to the Colts four selections later. And with LaPorta and Bowers dancing in our heads, we have to at least consider what upside Loveland and Warren might offer in their debut seasons
If you're playing the comp game, Loveland links with Trey McBride, while Warren tracks to Jason Witten. Maybe that's a half-step from Kittle and Kelce, but that's not bad.
History has far more rookie TE misses than hits
I think it's important to revisit just how underwhelming rookie tight ends tended to be before the 2023 season, when LaPorta dropped. Let's open the history books, focusing on the Fantasy Era, from 2000 to today. (And let's be transparent, we explored this last year, when the final conclusion was a fade of Bowers. Not good. Not fun.)
— Before Loveland, five tight ends had been drafted with top-10 picks over this period. Kyle Pitts had a quirky 2021 rookie campaign, with 1,026 yards but just one touchdown. He graded as the TE7 in half-point per reception scoring that season; he's been the TE33, TE14 and TE15 since. Largely a pain in the neck.
— Kellen Winslow II was the sixth pick in 2004 and got hurt. He played in just two games that season.
— Vernon Davis was hyped as the No. 6 pick out of Maryland in 2006. He missed six games as a rookie and didn't do much in the time he was healthy (20-265-3). Davis eventually became a good player, charting four times at TE8 or better (and he was the No. 1 TE in 2009).
— T.J. Hockenson (eighth pick, 2019) is part of the Iowa tight end legacy. His first year was underwhelming: 32-367-2. He missed four games.
— Eric Ebron (10th pick, 2014) never met a pass he didn't want to drop. He gave the Lions 13 mediocre games in his first year (25-248-1).
It's no wonder the fantasy ethos became "ignore rookie tight ends" around this period.
There are a few occasional hits if we look at other first-round tight ends (there were 27 picks in all). Evan Engram's 2017 debut grades out best among the first-round rookies in our target area: a 64-722-6 haul over 15 games. He edges past Pitts in standard scoring; Pitts is slightly ahead on half PPR. Engram was TE5 that year. This season, he's looking to reinvent himself on the Broncos.
Touchdown deodorant (six scores each) coaxed a TE11 season from Heath Miller and a TE17 season from O.J. Howard. Jeremy Shockey and Dalton Kincaid both made it past 70 receptions. Noah Fant and Dustin Keller were the only other first-round tight ends who made it past 500 yards receiving.
The second-round survey opens us up to some exciting seasons. LaPorta, of course, was the 34th pick in the 2023 draft. Rob Gronkowski had 10 touchdowns as a rookie; Pat Freiermuth had seven. John Carlson checked in with a solid 50-627-5 season.
The later rounds include plenty of players who went on to become stars, though most of their debut seasons were tame. Aaron Hernandez had six touchdowns as a rookie. Mark Andrews, Chris Cooley, Jimmy Graham, George Kittle and Jordan Reed showed future potential.
I suppose we also have to mention Captain Asterisk, Marques Colston. The Saints took him in the seventh round of the 2006 draft, the 252nd pick overall. His 70-1,038-8 season was a monster, and it was especially fun in Yahoo formats where he was tight end eligible. If you rostered Colston as a wideout, you enjoyed the WR14 season. If you could slide Colston to tight end, you had the top-scoring player at the position. Not bad for someone who was largely undrafted in fantasy leagues.
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Loveland and Warren unlikely to continue rookie TE surge
I'm probably going to fade Loveland and Warren this season. Maybe this means I didn't learn my lesson from LaPorta and Bowers, but I tend to take these things on a case-by-case basis. I also have to consider that while LaPorta and Bowers happened, the majority of tight end research would point you away from rookies.
Loveland's situation different than LaPorta's
Loveland does have a similar drop-off point to LaPorta. Ben Johnson is calling the plays, and Loveland walks into a pass-catcher room that has lots of talent. But Caleb Williams is still an unknown — he's certainly not as safe as Jared Goff — and the Bears play outside, compared to the indoor comforts of Detroit. Chicago also has a solid holdover tight end in Cole Kmet — while the Bears wouldn't draft Loveland so early if they didn't have big plans for him, there's a lot of crowding on this offense.
Loveland's early global ADP has him around the TE18, which is modest. Yahoo consensus rankings have him slightly higher, TE15, but he's not one of my targets, not for 2025 anyway.
Warren's environment far from ideal
If you're pining for Warren, you likely use Bowers as your NFL comp. After all, Bowers stepped into a dysfunctional Las Vegas offense and produced in spite of spotty QB play around him. Gardner Minshew, Aidan O'Connell, it didn't matter. So if Bowers could overcome that setup, maybe Warren can make it work with scattershot Anthony Richardson and erratic Daniel Jones.
But the depth of the Indianapolis WR room could get in Warren's way. Bowers merely had to share with Jakobi Meyers after an early-season trade of Davante Adams. The Colts have Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs, Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell competing for downfield work.
[2025 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers]
Indianapolis head coach Shane Steichen is probably coaching for his job. He has every incentive to onboard Warren quickly and use him creatively — something the Nittany Lions were able to do. Your final Warren conclusion might rest with how redeemable you view Richardson or Jones. If they can't play to a capable level, every pass-catcher in Naptown is running uphill.
Warren has been coveted in the early draft markets, the TE11 — he's the TE20 in Yahoo consensus ranks. That makes it easier for me to fade him. I'm intrigued by Tucker Kraft a round later or Pat Freiermuth about three rounds later.
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